Plain language summary – Do court decisions really protect rivers? Evidence from the Atrato River in Colombia

By Juan Camilo Ríos-Orjuela, Ana María Medina-Sánchez, William Gonzalez-Daza, Francisco Villa-Rojas, and Mauricio Madrigal-Pérez

This Plain Language Summary is published in advance of the paper discussed. Please check back soon for a link to the full paper.

Courts can recognize rivers as subjects of legal rights, but do these decisions lead to real ecological protection? In this study, we examine whether any measureable environmental change has accompanied Colombia’s landmark 2016 Constitutional Court ruling (T-622), which recognized the Atrato River as a rights-bearing entity.

We focused on vegetation cover along the Atrato River because forests, wetlands, and other natural covers provide a clear signal of ecological pressure or recovery. Using freely available satellite data, we analyzed land-cover changes from 2006 to 2023 within riparian zones of Afro-Colombian community councils and Indigenous reservations. We combined remote sensing with statistical models to track long-term trends and to compare patterns before and after the judicial decision. Our results show that natural vegetation along the Atrato River has continued to decline over time, particularly in Afro-Colombian community councils, where mining and infrastructure expanded. Indigenous reservations generally retained higher levels of natural cover, although they also experienced gradual vegetation loss and other landscape changes. Importantly, we found no evidence of abrupt improvements in vegetation trends following the 2016 ruling. Instead, land-cover dynamics appear to follow gradual trajectories that long-standing pressures such as extractive activities, armed conflict, and weak institutional enforcement shape.

These findings do not imply that recognizing rights of nature is ineffective. Rather, they highlight a central challenge: ambitious judicial decisions often lack clear ecological indicators to evaluate whether they are being implemented successfully. Without measurable benchmarks, follow-up tends to emphasize legal and procedural compliance rather than tangible environmental outcomes.

We argue that multitemporal vegetation cover analysis offers a practical, low-cost, and transparent tool to help address this gap. When integrated with local knowledge and participatory governance, such indicators can support communities, courts, and public institutions in tracking compliance and identifying areas where stronger action is needed.

Beyond the Atrato River, this approach can be applied to other regions where courts have recognized the rights of nature. Linking judicial mandates to observable ecological changes can strengthen environmental justice and help ensure that legal recognition translates into meaningful protection for ecosystems and the people who depend on them.